Cassandra Merritt

Abstract: The evolution of work is of emerging importance to advanced economies' growth. In this study, we develop a new semantic-distance-based algorithm to identify "new work," namely the new types of jobs introduced in the US. We characterize how "new work" relates to task content of jobs and skill characteristics of workers and document its geographic distribution and association with employment growth. Then, we analyze whether local factors associated in the previous literature with agglomeration economies and productivity growth as well as local exposures to global shocks---technology, trade, immigration, and population aging---predict the creation of "new work." We find local supply of college educated in 1980 as the strongest predictor of "new work." Using the historical location of 4-year colleges, a strong instrument for local college share, we find a positive and significant causal effect of local supply of human capital on "new work." 

NBER Working Paper
Russell Sage Foundation Grant (Future of Work, June 2023)

Abstract: The roll-out of newly developed 12th grade mathematics courses across California high schools provides an opportunity to understand the role of courses and curricular flexibility in human capital formation. Exploiting the quasi-random timing that a newly developed math course is introduced to a school -- which increased the course choices to 12th graders -- yields causal analysis to inform the aggregate and differential effects of increased curricular flexibility based on offerings. Students in curricula-expanded schools are approximately 5 percentage points (pp) more likely to take 12th grade math, 1pp more likely to attend a 4-year university, and almost 1pp less likely to persist into a second year. Based on wage return estimates to each outcome (Goodman, 2019; Zimmerman, 2014; Ost, Pan, and Webber, 2018), these effects altogether suggest an average increase in human capital that earns a 0.6-0.8% wage return across an entire student body. Subgroup analysis reveals increased rates of math-taking across almost all groups. In contrast, college enrollment and persistence effects are most pronounced for students matching the new courses' target population (not interested or ready for Calculus) and for female students. Results do not suggest this form of increased curricular flexibility can solve pre-existing inequities, but there is strong evidence that it is an effective and efficient policy for schools serving a diverse student body. 

Abstract: The road to college has many hurdles, and the journey is an unravelling mystery for each traveller -- the right information could be crucial for post-secondary matriculation. The California College Guidance Initiative (CCGI) started rolling out data-driven guidance tools across many California school districts and charter networks from 2013 to present, and now serves as the basis for the state's Cradle-to-Career Data System initiative. A key feature of CCGI tools is integration between local school IT systems, the UC Office of the President's approved A-G course database, and California universities' application systems. California universities' admission requirements include completion of a validated A-G curriculum -- a complexity CCGI serves to alleviate. Using California Department of Education student-level K-12 data, the intent-to-treat effect of CCGI's information treatment is measured via an "event study"-esque specification. Results show weak statistically significant evidence of a 5 percentage point increase in A-G curriculum completion if the tools are available over a student's full high school tenure.

Abstract: Coursework in high school has the potential to determine student trajectories well beyond. Math courses have been shown to affect college attendance (Dougherty, Goodman, Hill, Litke, and Page, 2017; Kim, Kim, DesJardins, and McCall, 2015; Long, Conger, and Iatarola, 2012), degree completion (Adelman, 1999, 2006; Smith, Hurwitz, and Avery, 2017), and career earnings (Rose and Betts, 2004). These benefits may have motivated inefficient sorting of students into a single traditional math pathway, resulting in: (i) disparate outcomes between student subgroups as under-prepared students are forced into ill-fitting classes, often amplifying inequities; and (ii) stagnant math readiness among the overall student population. This paper investigates the effects of introducing alternative pathways, which break away from the traditional hierarchical curriculum, embodied by Advanced Innovation Math (AIM) courses designed by six intersegmental partnerships in California (Reed, Brocco, Kurlaender, and Merritt, 2023). Inexact matching estimators are applied to an analysis dataset, derived from restricted-use student records from the California Department of Education (CDE) matched to the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) post-secondary enrollment data, to investigate the effect of AIM courses on high school and college outcomes. AIM courses increase the likelihood that students will complete course requirements for California State University or University of California eligibility by 3–10 percentage points and, in some cases, improves high school math grades. Enrollment in an AIM course can also increase the likelihood of attending college